Samsung’s Big <span style='color:red'>Semi Capex</span> Spending Keeps Pressure on Competition
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Samsung’s Big Semi Capex Spending Keeps Pressure on Competition

Samsung’s two-year capex spending of $46.8 billion nearly matches the combined two-year capex spending of $48.4 set by Intel and TSMC.IC Insights revised its outlook for total semiconductor industry capital spending and presented its forecast of semiconductor capex spending for individual companies in its November Update to The McClean Report 2018, which was released earlier this month.Samsung is expected to have the largest capex budget of any IC supplier again in 2018.  After spending $24.2 billion for semiconductor capex in 2017, IC Insights forecasts that Samsung’s spending will edge slightly downward, but remain at a very strong level of $22.6 billion in 2018 (Figure 1).  If it comes in at this amount, Samsung’s two-year semiconductor capital spending will be an astounding $46.8 billion.Figure 1As seen in Figure 1, Samsung’s semiconductor capital outlays from 2010, the first year the company spent more than $10 billion in semiconductor capex, through 2016 averaged $12.0 billion per year.  However, after spending $11.3 billion in 2016, the company more than doubled its 2017 capex budget.  The fact that Samsung’s continued its strong capex spending in 2018 is just as impressive.IC Insights believes that Samsung’s massive spending outlays in 2017 and 2018 will have repercussions far into the future.  One effect that has already begun is a period of overcapacity in the 3D NAND flash market.  This overcapacity situation is due not only to Samsung’s huge spending for 3D NAND flash, but also from spending by competitors (e.g., SK Hynix, Micron, Toshiba, Intel, etc.) that attempt to keep pace in this market segment.With the DRAM and NAND flash memory markets showing strong growth through the first three quarters of 2018, SK Hynix ramped up its capital spending this year.  In 1Q18, SK Hynix said that it intended to increase its capex spending by “at least 30%” this year.  In the November Update, IC Insights forecasts that SK Hynix will see a 58% surge in its semi capex spending.  The increased spending by SK Hynix this year is focused primarily on bringing new capacity online at two of its large memory fabs—M15, a 3D NAND flash fab in Cheongju, South Korea, and the expansion of its huge DRAM fab in Wuxi, China.  The Cheongju fab is being pushed to open before the end of this year.  The Wuxi fab is also targeted to open by the end of this year, a few months earlier than its original start date of early 2019.Overall, IC Insights’ now forecasts total semiconductor industry capital spending will climb 15% to $107.1 billion this year, the first time that annual industry capex is expected to top $100.0 billion.  Following the industry-wide growth this year, semiconductor capex is expected to decline 12% in 2019 (Figure 2).Figure 2Given that the current softness in the memory market is expected to extend into at least the first half of next year, the combined capital spending by the three largest memory suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—is forecast to drop from $45.4 billion in 2018 to $37.5 billion in 2019, a decline of 17%.In total, the top five spenders, which are expected to represent 66% of total outlays this year, are forecast to cut their capital spending by 14% in 2019 with the remaining semiconductor industry companies registering a 7% decline.
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Release time：2018-12-03 00:00 reading：2192 Continue reading>>
Memory ICs to Account for 53% of Total 2018 <span style='color:red'>Semi Capex</span>
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Memory ICs to Account for 53% of Total 2018 Semi Capex

IC Insights forecasts total semiconductor capital expenditures will rise to $102.0 billion this year, marking the first time that the industry has spent more than $100 billion on capital expenditures in one year.  The $102.0 billion spending level represents a 9% increase over $93.3 billion spent in 2017, which was a 38% surge over 2016.Figure 1 shows that more than half of industry capital spending is forecast for memory production—primarily DRAM and flash memory—including upgrades to existing wafer fab lines and brand new manufacturing facilities. Collectively, memory is forecast to account for 53% of semiconductor capital expenditures this year.  The share of capital spending for memory devices has increase substantially in six years, nearly doubling from 27% ($14.7 billion) in 2013 to a forecast of 53% ($54.0 billion) of total industry capex in 2018, which amounts to a 2013-2018 CAGR of 30%.Figure 1Of the major product categories shown, DRAM/SRAM is forecast to show the largest increase in spending, but flash memory is expected to account for the largest share of capex spending this year (Figure 2).  Capital spending for the DRAM/SRAM segment is forecast to show a 41% surge in 2018 after a strong 82% increase in 2017.  Capital spending for flash memory is forecast to rise 13% in 2018 after a 91% increase in 2017.Figure 2After two years of big increases in capital expenditures, a major question looming is whether high levels of spending will lead to overcapacity and a softening of prices.  Historical precedent in the memory market shows that too much spending usually leads to overcapacity and subsequent pricing weakness.  With Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Intel, Toshiba/Western Digital/SanDisk, and XMC/Yangtze River Storage Technology all planning to significantly ramp up 3D NAND flash capacity over the next couple of years (and new Chinese memory startup companies entering the market), IC Insights believes that the future risk for overshooting 3D NAND flash market demand is high and growing.
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Release time：2018-08-30 00:00 reading：1334 Continue reading>>
China’s <span style='color:red'>Semi Capex</span> Forecast to be Larger than Europe and Japan Combined in 2018
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China’s Semi Capex Forecast to be Larger than Europe and Japan Combined in 2018

Chinese semi firms to spend $11.0 billion in capex this year, up from only $2.2 billion in 2015.IC Insights will release its 200+ page Mid-Year Update to the 2018 McClean Report next month.  The Mid-Year Update revises IC Insights’ worldwide economic and IC industry forecasts through 2022 that were originally presented in The 2018 McClean Report issued in January of this year.Figure 1 shows that IC Insights forecasts that China-headquartered companies will spend $11.0 billion in semiconductor industry capex in 2018, which would represent 10.6% of the expected worldwide outlays of $103.5 billion.  Not only would this amount be 5x what the Chinese companies spent only three years earlier in 2015, but it would also exceed the combined semiconductor industry capital spending of Japan- and Europe-headquartered companies this year.Since adopting the fab-lite business model, the three major European producers have represented a very small share of total semiconductor industry capital expenditures and are forecast to account for only 4% of global spending in 2018 after representing 8% of worldwide capex in 2005.  Although there may be an occasional spike in capital spending from European companies (e.g., the surge in spending from ST and AMS in 2017), IC Insights believes that Europe-headquartered companies will represent only 3% of worldwide semiconductor capital expenditures in 2022.It should be noted that several Japanese semiconductor companies have also transitioned to a fab-lite business model (e.g., Renesas, Sony, etc.).  With strong competition reducing the number and strength of Japanese semiconductor manufacturers, the loss of its vertically integrated businesses and thus missing out on supplying devices for several high-volume end-use applications, and its collective shift toward fab-lite business models, Japanese companies have greatly reduced their investment in new wafer fabs and equipment.  In fact, Japanese companies are forecast to represent only 6% of total semiconductor industry capital expenditures in 2018, a big decline from the 22% share they held in 2005 and an even more precipitous drop from the 51% share they held in 1990.Figure 1Although China-headquartered pure-play foundry SMIC has been part of the list of major semiconductor industry capital spenders for quite some time, there are four additional Chinese companies that are forecast to become significant semiconductor industry spenders this year and next—memory suppliers XMC/YMTC, Innotron, JHICC, and pure-play foundry Shanghai Huali.  Each of these companies is expected to spend a considerable amount of money equipping and ramping up their new fabs in 2018 and 2019.Due to the increased spending by startup China-based memory manufacturers, IC Insights believes that the Asia-Pac/Others share of semiconductor industry capital spending will remain over 60% for at least the next couple of years.
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Release time：2018-06-27 00:00 reading：1370 Continue reading>>
<span style='color:red'>Semi Capex</span> Forecast to Exceed $100B for the First Time in 2018
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Semi Capex Forecast to Exceed $100B for the First Time in 2018

The capital spending story for 2018 is becoming much more positive as compared with the forecast presented in IC Insights’ March Update to The McClean Report 2018 (MR18).  In the March Update, IC Insights forecast an 8% increase in semiconductor industry capital spending for this year.  However, as shown in Figure 1, IC Insights has raised its expectations for 2018 capital spending by six percentage points to a 14% increase.  If this increase occurs, it would be the first time that semiconductor industry capital outlays exceeded $100 billion.  The worldwide 2018 capital spending forecast figure is 53% higher than the spending just two years earlier in 2016.Although Samsung says it still does not have a full-year capital spending forecast for this year it did say it will spend “less” in semiconductor capital outlays in 2018 as compared to 2017, when it spent $24.2 billion.  However, as of 1Q18, with regard to its capex, its “foot is still on the gas!”  Samsung spent $6.72 billion in capex for its semiconductor division in 1Q18, slightly higher than the average of the previous three quarters.  This figure is almost 4x the amount the company spent just two years earlier in 1Q16!  Over the past four quarters, Samsung has spent an incredible $26.6 billion in capital outlays for its semiconductor group. Wow!IC Insights has estimated Samsung’s semiconductor group capital spending will be $20.0 billion this year, $4.2 billion less than it spent in 2017.  However, given the strong start to its spending this year, it appears there is currently more upside than downside potential to this forecast.With the DRAM and NAND flash memory markets still very strong, SK Hynix is expected to ramp up its capital spending this year to $11.5 billion, 42% greater than the $8.1 billion it spent in 2017. The increased spending by SK Hynix this year will primarily focus on bringing on-line two large memory fabs—M15, a 3D NAND flash fab in Cheongju, South Korea and its expansion of its huge DRAM fab in Wuxi, China.  The Cheongju fab is being pushed to open before the end of this year.  The Wuxi fab is also targeted to open by the end of this year, a few months earlier than its original planned start date of early 2019.
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Release time：2018-05-23 00:00 reading：1175 Continue reading>>

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