Wafer shipments forecast to set new highs through 2021

Release time:2018-10-17
author:Ameya360
source:electroiq
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Total wafer shipments in 2018 year are expected to eclipse the all-time market high set in 2017 and continue to reach record levels through 2021, according to SEMI’s recent semiconductor industry annual silicon shipment forecast. The forecast of demand for silicon units for the period 2018 through 2021 shows polished and epitaxial silicon shipments totaling 12,445 million square inches in 2018; 13,090 million square inches in 2019; 13,440 million square inches in 2020, and 13,778 million square inches in 2021 (see table below).

“As new greenfield fab projects continue to emerge for memory and foundry, silicon shipments are expected to remain strong for 2019 and through 2021,” said Clark Tseng, director of Industry Research & Statistics at SEMI. “Silicon demand will continue to grow as semiconductor content increases in mobile, high-performance computing, automotive, and Internet of Things applications.”

2018 Silicon* Shipment Forecast (MSI = Millions of Square Inches)


Actual

Forecast


2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

MSI

10,577

11,617

12,445

13,090

13,440

13,778

Annual Growth

3.0%

9.8%

7.1%

5.2%

2.7%

2.5%

*Total Electronic Grade Silicon Slices – Excludes Non-Polished Wafers

*Shipments are for semiconductor applications only and do not include solar applications

Source: SEMI , October 2018

Silicon wafers are the fundamental building material for semiconductors, which in turn, are vital components of virtually all electronics goods, including computers, telecommunications products, and consumer electronics. The highly engineered thin round disks are produced in various diameters (from one inch to 12 inches) and serve as the substrate material on which most semiconductor devices or chips are fabricated.

All data cited in this release is inclusive of polished silicon wafers, including virgin test wafers and epitaxial silicon wafers shipped by the wafer manufacturers to the end-users. Data do not include non-polished or reclaimed wafers.

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Industry-Wide Price Decline: Wafers and Cells Experience Accelerated Rate
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In terms of cell types, the presence of less efficient N-type cells in the market has led to price discrepancies and resulting chaos. This has made it more challenging to ship N-type cells.  This week, the rate of decline in N-type cells has increased compared to last week, which is narrowing the price gap between P-type and N-type cells. On the demand side, the production rates of module manufacturers have remained constant. However, due to mounting cost pressures, specialized module manufacturers are displaying stronger signs of reducing their output and are slowing down their raw material purchases. With upstream product prices dropping and weaker downstream demand, there is insufficient support for cell prices. This week, prices for different cell types are declining, and the rate of decline is decreasing further.  Module  Module prices have gone down slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.15/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.16/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.16/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.17/W.  On the supply side, module manufacturers are maintaining their production rates, but there’s a divergence in their production schedules. First-tier module manufacturers still have ample orders to keep their operations running at full capacity, while specialized manufacturers are reducing their production schedules due to increased costs and lower order volumes. Additionally, specialized manufacturers are cutting back on their cell purchases.  On the demand side, module prices continue to decline, which has led to growing concerns in the overseas market regarding the diminishing value of modules. Consequently, they are slowing down their purchasing pace and focusing on depleting their substantial inventory. On the domestic front, the demand for modules is expected to decline as the peak season for ground-based installations comes to an end. Future demand hinges on the marginal changes in distributed PV installations. Currently, demand is sluggish, and with upstream product prices decreasing, the cost-side support is weakening. As a result, module prices are experiencing a slight decline.
2023-10-26 16:50 reading:1452
2018 total wafer demand expected to reach 115.1 million 300mm wafer equivalents
2018-07-26 00:00 reading:1128
Wafer demand for ‘More than Moore’ devices to grow by 10%
Wafer demand for ‘More than Moore’ (MtM) devices is expected to grow by 10% between 2017 and 2023, Yole Développement, the market research and strategy consulting company, reports.Driven by the adoption of evermore electronic components in end products, the semiconductor industry is facing a new era, Yole claims. Device scaling and cost reduction will no longer continue on the path followed for the past few decades. Instead, semiconductor companies are seeking solutions that bridge the gap between cost and performance, whilst adding increased functionality through integration.MtM devices (including MEMS & sensors, CMOS Image Sensors, power electronic, along with RF devices) represent this functional diversification of technologies, the report continues, combining performance, integration and cost - not limited to CMOS scaling. And their importance, Yole predicts, will become greater.MtM devices reached almost 45million 8-inch eq wafers in 2017 and the demand is anticipated to reach more than 66m 8-inch eq wafers by 2023.According to the report, 6-inch and 8-inch are forecast to represent more than 60% of MtM wafers' total wafer consumption. However, Yole says 12-inch will represent the fastest growth between 2017 and 2023, with demand growing from 3.3m units to 7.5m by 2023. This is due mainly to Backside Illumination CMOS Image Sensors (BSI CIS) (3D stacked BSI, 3D hybrid BSI), Yole adds.Currently, 4-inch wafer diameter is in large demand for MtM applications driven by RF Surface Acoustic Wave filter products. However, Yole says the adoption of this wafer will decrease due to a transition to 6-inch.Despite silicon's dominance in the semiconductor area (80% market share), alternative substrates, such asSiGe, GaAs, GaN, and SiC,are disrupting the MtM market.Yole suggests that the ‘megatrend’ market is driving the MtM wafer volume evolution. These megatrends include 5G, mobile, voice processing, smart automotive, augmented reality/virtual reality, and artificial intelligence.Driven by the increasing deployment of renewable energy sources (principally solar energy inverters) and industrial motor drives, as well as the growing electric and hybrid vehicles (EV/HEVs) automotive industry, power devices’, Yole anticipates the wafer market size to grow at an almost 13% CAGR between 2017 and 2023.
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