Consumer Space Drives Service Robot Sales, Startups

　　Recent market studies on global trends in service robots conclude that the consumer-robot category is growing faster than any other kind. In 2020, service robots for domestic or personal use could well account for 40 million units sold — some of them by robotics startups, which are also on the rise.

　　The service-robot category covers just about all robots other than the fixed-in-place, industrial machines designed to do one main job very accurately and very fast. Service robots vary widely in form and function and sell in far higher unit volumes than industrial robots. Most analyses distinguish between professional service robots, such as those used in military or medical applications, and robots for domestic and personal use, such as smart vacuums and toys. Professional service robots are more complex, command a higher price tag, and account for annual unit sales in the tens of thousands. Domestic and personal-use robots are simpler, cost much less, and sell in the millions of units per year. Most robots of both types are produced in the United States.

　　Global unit sales of professional service robots increased 24% in 2016 over 2015, while the dollar value per robot increased by only 2%, according to “World Robotics: Service Robots 2017,” a report from Germany’s International Federation of Robotics. IFR attributes the low rate of revenue increase to a slight decline in sales of high-value military machines, which accounted for 19% of units sold in 2016. Unit sales of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the largest military type, grew 4%, but unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) unit volumes declined by 32%.

　　About 10% of professional service robots are “field” or agricultural machines, such as milking systems. These also declined slightly in 2016. But unit sales of medical robots — by far the highest-priced of any service robot — rose 23%, accounting for 2.7% of professional-robot sales in 2016. In a separate category are powered exoskeletons that help rehab patients walk or reduce the weight of loads carried; unit sales of these machines rose 21%. Growing even faster are logistics systems, such as the automated guided vehicles (AGVs) used in factories. Their volumes increased 34% in 2016, and they now constitute 43% of professional service robots.

　　Most of the domestic/personal robots sold are machines that perform household tasks, such as vacuuming and lawn mowing. The IFR report estimates unit growth of 25% for such robots in 2016. Another rapidly increasing category is entertainment robots, such as sophisticated toys, for which volumes rose 22% in 2016.

　　The IFR expects aggressive growth in the next few years for service robots. The organization estimates a 17% rise in total unit sales of professional robots for the current year and predicts increases of 20% to 25% annually for the professional category between 2018 and 2020. Some of the fastest-growing professional service robots are public relations systems, for which volumes are estimated to have jumped 37%, to 10,300 units, in 2017 and are predicted to grow to 66,100 units by 2020. Logistics systems such as AGVs in factories, hospitals, and e-commerce environments will jump 46% in 2017 and then grow 25% to 30% per year between 2018 and 2020.

　　Powered exoskeletons will continue to log rapid growth, according to IFR, which estimates a unit increase of 35% for the category in 2017, followed by 25% growth per year between 2018 and 2020. Domestic/household robot unit volumes overall have grown 30% in 2017 and will rise 30% to 35% annually in the 2018-2020 time frame. Entertainment robot unit sales will increase 20% to 25% annually during the forecast period.

　　“The growing interest in service robotics is partly due to the variety and number of new startups, which currently account for 29% of all robot companies,” Martin H?gele, chairman of the IFR Service Robot Group, said in a statement. About 200 startup companies in the United States are developing service robots, along with 170 in the European Union and Switzerland, and 135 in Asia.

　　In a study released in June, Boston Consulting Group reported that private investment in the robotics space had tripled between 2014 and 2015 alone. Lower prices and improving capabilities, including cheaper and better electronics and easier programming, have helped fuel this rise, according to the BCG report.

　　The management consulting firm measures robotics in dollar values. In 2014, it predicted a global market for all types of robots — military, industrial, commercial, and consumer — of $67 billion by 2025. BCG sharply revised that figure upward in its June report, predicting a total market of $87 billion. The new tally includes a jump of 156% for consumer robots, which indicates very high unit numbers, considering the consumer category’s much lower average selling prices.

　　In 2016, robotics technologies shifted toward consumer-facing applications, and more companies serving the consumer space were started. But the trend itself is older: Since 2012, about 40% of all new robotics companies have targeted consumers, with far fewer startups emerging to serve the military, commercial, and industrial sectors.

　　“Much of the accelerated growth [by 2025] will come from the consumer market because of applications such as self-driving cars and devices for the home,” Vlad Lukic, a BCG partner and coauthor of the report, said in a statement. The rest will come from 34% higher growth in commercial robots.

　　According to a recent study from Swedish market research firm Berg Insight, the global installed base of service robots totaled 29.6 million units in 2016. A whopping 80 percent, or 23.8 million, were floor-cleaning robots. Accounting for the remainder were 4 million UAVs, or drones; 1.6 million robotic lawn mowers; 100,000 AGVs; 50,000 milking robots; and lots of other types in much smaller numbers: humanoid, assistant and companion, telepresence, surgical, autonomous mobile, and powered exoskeleton.

　　Berg predicts that the total installed base of service robots will rise to 264.3 million worldwide by 2026, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% between 2016 and the final forecast year. The figures are close to the IFR’s estimates covering a portion of the forecast period.